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Twitter:现在的举动

Twitter:现在的举动

ZUOZHE:James Bonifer

摘要

  • 在获得有利的盈利报告后,Twitter股价正在上涨。
  • 该公司正在通过MAU货币化方面取得进展。
  • 我维持买入评级并提高我的目标价格。

投资论文

图表YCharts的数据

Twitter(NIUYUEZHENGQUANJIAOYISUODAIMA:TWTR)FABULE2019CAINIANDIYIJIDUYINGLIPILUHETOUZIZHEXINWENGAO。RUGUONISHISHANGGEYUEDADIANHUAJIWOGOUMAIGUPIAODETOUZIZHEZHIYI,NEIMEJINTIANDUINILAISHUOKENENGFEICHANGHAO。ZAIZHUANXIEBENWENSHI,ZIGONGGAOFABUYILAI,GUJIASHANGZHANGLEDAYUE15%,SUIRANYUEDUHUOYUEYONGHUJIEGUOBIWOYUQIDEYAOQING,DANGAIGONGSIBAOGAOLEMEIYONGHUSHOURUDEDAFUZENGZHANG。ZHEIGEXINXINXIRANGWOJIANGJIAGEMUBIAODIAOZHENGDAOLESHANGXINGKONGJIAN,DANWOJIANGGUPIAOPINGJICONGMAIRUXIADIAOZHICHIYOU,YINWEIWORENWEIJIAGEXINGDONGTAIKUAILE。

表现和预测

推特盈亏声明资料来源:Twitter投资者关系

JIANYUMUQIANDEIPOSHICHANG,ZHIDEZHUYIDESHI,TwitterSHIGUIGUZHICHIDESHINIANLAIDUJIAOSHOUIPOZAINANZHIYI。GAIGONGSISHOUCILIANGXIANGBAOFAXINGZENGZHANG,QIGUPIAOJIAGEGAODA75MEIYUAN,JINZAISUODINGQIJIANDIEPOIPOJIAGE,DAO2016NIAN,TAMENDIEPO20MEIYUANSHUIPING。DANGYINGLINENGLIJINRUSHICHANGSHI,ZHENGJIUDEENDIANJIULAILE; GAIGONGSIYONGYOUZIYOUXIANJINLIU,KEYICONGZHONGHUODEJIAZHIYUXIAOSHOUEDEBEISHU。

极速排列32018NIAN,GAIGONGSIDEXIAOSHOUEWEI30.42YIMEIYUAN,BIQUNIANTONGQIZENGZHANG20%,JINGSHOURUWEI12.06YIMEIYUAN,ZHIQIANBINGWEISHIXIANQUANNIANYINGLI。ZAIZUIJINYIGEJIDU,GAIGONGSICHUANGZAOLE7.87YIMEIYUANDESHOURU(TONGBIZENGZHANG18%)HE1.91YIMEIYUANDEJINGSHOURU(TONGBIZENGZHANGCHAOGUO200%)。TUIDONGZHEIXIEJIEGUOSHILIANGGEZHUYAOJIAZHIGUAN; MEIYUEHUOYUEYONGHUHEMEIGEYONGHUDEPINGJUNXIAOSHOUE。

Twitter使用情况统计数据Twitter货币化统计数据资料来源:Twitter投资者关系

MEIYUEHUOYUEYONGHUSHULIANGLVEYOUXIAJIANG,ZHEIBENSHENBINGBULEGUAN,DANYIXIANSHIMEIYONGHUHUOBIHUAZENGZHANG18%,ZHEIZUYIMIBUZUICHUMINGXIANDEQUEDIAN。DUIZHEILIANGGEGUANJIANZHIBIAODEYUCESHIWOQIANZHANXINGGUJIDEZHUYAOQUDONGYINSU。

Twitter MAU预测

每位用户的广告收入来源:贡献者研究

极速排列3SHANGMIANDETUBIAOANDILIWEIZHIXIANGXISHUOMINGLEWODUIMAUHEMEIYONGHUGUANGGAOSHOURUDEYUQI。WOYUJIMAUJIANGBAOCHIXIANGDUICHIPING,RUGUOBUSHIZAIGUOJISHANGSHAOLIANGXIAJIANG,DANWOYUJIMEIYONGHUSHOURUJIANGJIXUYICHAOGUOYONGHUSHUXIAJIANGDESUDUZENGZHANG。ZAIMEIGUOHEGUOJISHANG,WOYUJIMEIGEYONGHUDESHOURUFENBIEWEI8.05MEIYUANHE1.72MEIYUAN,YIJIFENBIEWEI2017CAINIANHE2017CAINIANDISIJIDUDE9.66MEIYUANHE1.98MEIYUAN。YOUYUGUONEIYONGHUHUOBIHUADEZENGZHANGCHAOGUOLEWORENWEIMEIGUODILIDANWEIJIANGZAI2019NIANDISANJIDUCHAOGUOGUOJIGUIMO。

用户地理位置的广告收入推特细分收入来源:贡献者研究

极速排列3SHANGMIANDETUBIAOXIANGXILIECHULEWODUI2010CAINIANDISIJIDUGUANGGAOHEZONGSHOURUDEWANZHENGYUCE。NINKEYIZAIXIATUZHONGGENJUZHEIXIEYUCECHAKANWANZHENGDEYUCESHOURUBAOBIAO。

Twitter预测了损益表来源:贡献者研究

JIGEZHUYAODECAIWULIANGDIANRUXIA:

  • 2019财年收入36.63亿美元(同比增长20%)
  • 2019财年毛利率为74%
  • 2019财年营业利润率为21%
  • 2019财年净收入9.98464亿美元(由于18财年第3季度的税收优惠不规则,每年同比下降17%)
  • 2019财年每股盈利1.28美元
  • 2020财年收入42.29亿美元(同比增长15%)
  • 2020财年毛利率为80%
  • 2020财年营业利润率为27%
  • 2020财年净收入11.19亿美元(同比增长12%)
  • 2020财年每股盈利1.39美元

计价

WODEGUZHIJIYUTIEXIANXIANJINLIULIANGMOXING。WODEYIBANJIASHEKEYIZAIXIABIAOZHONGCHAKAN:

Twitter DCF假设来源:贡献者研究

ZHEIXIESHURUJIANGYONGYUZHIDINGWODEXIANJINLIULIANGJIASHEBINGZHAOCHUTIEXIANLV,ZAIZHEIZHONGQINGKUANGXIA,TIEXIANLVSHIJIAQUANPINGJUNZIBENCHENGBEN。WEILEZHANSHIJIYUKEBIANSHICHANGTIAOJIANHEGONGSIJIEGUODEQIANZAIJIEGUODEFANWEI,WOJIANGYILINGMINDUBIAODEXINGSHICHENGXIANWODEDCFHEWACCJISUANDEJIEGUO。

Twitter WACC来源:贡献者研究

WODEBIAOGESHUCHUWACCZHEKOULV,FANWEICONG7.11%DAO9.60%,GENJUWODEYUQITOURU,ZHONGXINZHIWEI8.29%。CUTISHUZIBIAOSHIWODEFANWEIJIANGYONGYUWODEDCFBIAOZHONG,YICESHIZUIGUANGFANDEJIEGUO(JIANXIAWEN)。

Twitter DCF表来源:贡献者研究

极速排列3TIANCHONGSHUIPINGBIANLIANGDEZHISHIYONGYUZHEKOUXIANQIANXIANSHIDENIANDUZIYOUXIANJINLIUDESHANGSHUWACCFEILV,CHUIZHISHURUSHIWODUIZHONGDUANZENGZHANGDEYUQI。CHANCHUFANWEICONG33.31MEIYUANDAO56.56MEIYUAN(FENBIEKANDIEKANZHANG)HEYUQIZHI41.86MEIYUAN。JISHIYOUTwitterDEYINGLIHOUFANDAN,ZHEIYEYIWEIZHEGUPIAORENGRANCUNZAISHANGZHANGKONGJIAN,DANBINGBUXIANGWOXIANGDENEIMEDUO。

风险

监管问题

WOKANDAOSHEJIAOGUPIAOYIJIRENHETONGGUOYONGHUSHUJUHUOBIHUADEGUPIAOSUOMIANLINDEZUIDAFENGXIANSHIDUIZHEIZHONGZUOFADEJIANGUANYUELAIYUEDUO。TwitterYIZHISHIZUISHOUGUANZHUDEMINGZIZHIYI,HAIYOUFacebook(FB)HEAlphabet(NASIDAKEGUPIAODAIMA:GOOG)(NASIDAKEGUPIAODAIMA:GOOGL))。SHOUXIZHIXINGGUANJIEKE·DUOERXI(Jack Dorsey)YIBEIZHAOJIDAOHUASHENGDUNWEIYONGHUSHUJUDECUNCHUHEANQUANZUOZHENG,TADEBIAOXIANBINGMEIYOUJIRENLIUXIASHENKEDEYINXIANG。JINGUANTABINGBUXIANGGUGENEIYANGSIWUJIDAN,TAXUANZEBUCHUXIAN,DANTADEBIAOXIANHENJINZHANG,BINGQIEZAIGUANGBOZHONGBIAOXIANCHUTADEJUZHIHEJIAOFU。SUIRANWODUIDorseyHETADEBIAOXIANGANDAOMANYI,DANWOBUQUEDINGTASHIFOUNENGGOUZUIHAODICHULIBEISHOUZHUMUDECHOUWEN,BINGQIEKEYITONGGUOPAITARENZAIZHEIGEHUANJINGZHONGGENGSHUSHILAIHUOYI。

用户号码下降

LINGYIGEZHIDEGUANZHUDELINGYUSHI,RUQIANSUOSHU,MEIYUEYONGHUSHULIANGZAIGUOJISHANGZHENGZAIXIAJIANG,WOXIWANGZHEIZHONGQINGKUANGNENGGOUCHIXUXIAQU。ZHEIJIGONGSIDAILAILEHENDADEYALI,YAOQIUQISHIXIANYUQIDEHUOBIHUAZENGZHANGSHUIPING,TEBIESHIZAIGUONEI。RUGUOTAMENKAISHIXIAHUA,WOMENKENENGBUDEBUDUIJIAGEMUBIAOHEZONGSHOURUYUCEJINXINGXIADIAO。

结论

极速排列3JIEKE·DUOERXI(Jack Dorsey)ZHENGZAITUIDONGTwitterCHAOZHEZHENGQUEDEFANGXIANGFAZHAN,TOUZIZHEDEWEILAIQIANJINGGUANGMING。HUASUIZHEIMESHUO,WOCONGBUXIHUANGOUMAIGANGGANGJINGLILEDAFUSHANGZHANGDEGUPIAO。JIHUBUKENENGJISUANCHUDINGBUHEDIBUDESHIJIAN,DANJIANYUZHEIYIJINGYUWODEJIAGEMUBIAOYOUDUOJIEJIN,WOYUJIZAIXIAGEJIDUZHIQIANHUIYOUGENGHAODEMAIRUJIHUI。RUGUONIZHENDEXIANGYAOYIGESHUZILAIXUNZHAO,WOHUISHIYONG37.00MEIYUAN,YINWEITAZAIZHUOMIANSHANGLIUXIALE13%DEHAOCHU。YOUYUSUOYOUZHEIXIEYUANYIN,WOJITwitterYIGECHIYOUPINGJI,BINGJIANGWODEJIAGEMUBIAOSHEDINGWEI2019NIANDE42.00MEIYUAN。