Loading
0

台湾半导体已经通过半导体周期的底部

台湾半导体已经通过半导体周期的底部

ZUOZHE:Ploutos Investing

摘要

  • 台积电是全球最大的专用独立(纯电)半导体代工厂。
  • 台积电2019年第一季度业绩不佳,但其业务预计将在2019年下半年复苏。
  • 该公司准备在未来几年内从人工智能和5G的大趋势中受益。
  • 该公司将在2019年支付3.7%的股息。

投资论文

TAIJIDIAN(“TAIJIDIAN”)(NIUYUEZHENGQUANJIAOYISUOGUPIAODAIMA:TSM)ZAI2019NIANDIYIJIDUCHUXIANFUZENGZHANGHEYINGLIZENGZHANG,ZHUYAOSHIYOUYU2018NIANDISIJIDUHE2019NIANDIYIJIDUQUANQIUJINGJIPIRUO。CIWAI,QIKEHUDEKUCUNDIAOZHENGYEYINGXIANGLEQIYEWUFU。JINGUANRUCI,GAIGONGSIDEQIANJINGRENGRANKANHAO,YINWEITAKEYICONGDAQUSHIDERENGONGZHINENGHE5GZHONGSHOUYI。CIWAI,QIKEHUDEKUCUNXIUZHENGKENENGHUIGENJUKEHUDEZHISHIDADAOMUDE。DANSHI,TAMUQIANDEGUJIASIHUHENANGGUI。WOMENRENWEITOUZIZHEKENENGXIWANGDENGDAIHUIDIAO,YINWEIXUYAOGENGGAODEANQUANBIANJI。

最新动态:2019年第一季度亮点

极速排列3TAIJIDIANBAOGAOQI2019NIANDIYIJIDUYEJITONGBIXIAJIANG16.1%。QIMEIGUYINGLI2.37XINTAIBITONGBIXIADIE31.6%。PIRUODESHANGXIAXIANZENGZHANGZHUYAOSHIYOUYUXUQIUPIRUANYIJIKEHUDEKUCUNDIAOZHENG。CIWAI,GUANGKEJIAOQUEXIANCAILIAOSHIJIANYEDAOZHIBENJIDUSHOURUXIAJIANG。

ZILIAOLAIYUAN:2019NIANDIYIJIDUTOUZIZHEBAOGAO

保证金压缩继续

TAIJIDIAN2018NIANDISIJIDUDEMAOLILVWEI41.3%,JIEJINQIXIUDINGZHIYIN41-43%DEDIDUAN。ZAIXIUDINGZHIYINZHIQIAN,QI2019NIANDIYIJIDUMAOLILVZHIYINWEI43-45%。QI2019NIANDIYIJIDUMAOLILVJIAO2018NIANDIYIJIDUXIAJIANG900GEJIDIAN。TONGYANG,QI2019NIANDIYIJIDUDELIRUNLVCONG2018NIANDIYIJIDUDE39%XIAJIANGZHI29.4%。YIXIASHIXIANSHITAIJIDIANMAOLILVHETONGBIDETUBIAOZI2016NIANDISANJIDUYILAIDEZENGZHANGLV。CONGTUBIAOZHONGKEYIKANCHU,ZI2017NIANDIERJIDUYILAI,QIMAOLILVTONGBIBIANDONGWEIFU。SHISHISHANG,TAIJIDIANDEMAOLILVCONG2016NIANDISIJIDUDE52.3%GAOWEIYASUOZHI41.3%ZAI2019NIANDIYIJIDU,TAIJIDIANZAI2019NIANDIYIJIDUDEMAOLILVXIAJIANGZHUYAOSHIYOUYUZHENGTIPIRUODEHONGGUANJINGJIHUANJINGHEGONGYINGLIANZHONGDEGAOKUCUNSHUIPINGDAOZHILIYONGLVXIAJIANG。

LAIYUAN:ZUOZHECHUANGZUO; GONGSIBAOGAO

为什么我们认为台积电将继续取得强劲成果

极速排列3SUIRAN2019NIANDIYIJIDUQIDINGXIANHEDIXIANDEZENGZHANGPIRUAN,DANWOMENDUITAIJIDIANZAI2019NIANHE2020NIANDEYEWUBIAOXIANCHILEGUANTAIDU,YUANYINRUXIA:

库存修正可能接近尾声

SUIRANTAIJIDIANDEKUCUNTIANSHUCONG2018NIANDISIJIDUZENGJIALE13TIAN,DAO2019NIANDIYIJIDUDE79TIAN,DANDIANHUAHUIYIDEGUANLIRENYUANBIAOSHITAMENYUJIKUCUNTIANSHUJIANGDAFUJIANSHAO,BINGGENJUKEHUZHISHIHEJINGYUANZHUANGZAILIANGZAI2019NIANZHONGQIJIEJINJIJIEXINGSHUIPINGZAI2019NIANDIERJIDU。GUANLICENGDEYUQIHAOYUSHANGYIJIDUDEYUQI。

ZILIAOLAIYUAN:2019NIANDIYIJIDUMD&A

人工智能和5G将帮助台积电保持5-10%的收入增长指引

极速排列3TAIJIDIANYINGGAINENGGOUJIAYUDAQUSHIDERENGONGZHINENGHE5G。ZHEIXIEDAQUSHIJINCHUYUCHUSHIJIEDUAN,YINGCHIXUDUONIAN。JINNIANJIANGBUHUIYOUHENDUO5GXINPIAN,YINWEIJINNIANRENGJIANGSHIDIANXINFUWUTIGONGSHANGKAISHIBUSHU5GJICHUSHESHIHEJIZHANDEYINIAN。YINCI,JINNIANJIANGBUHUIYOUHENDUO5GZHINENGSHOUJI。GUANLICENGRENWEIAIHE5GGONGNENGDOUJIANGBAOHANZAIWEILAIDEZHINENGSHOUJIZHONG。JINGUANMINGNIANCAIYOUKENENGSHIXIANDALIANGZENGZHANG,DANHAOCHUSHIGUANLICENGSHIJISHANGKANDAORENGONGZHINENGHE5GXIANGGUANCHANPINSHEJIDEGUIHANLIANGYOUSUOZENGJIA。SHIJISHANG,GUANLICENGZAIDIANHUAHUIYISHANGBIAOSHI,5GBUSHUBITAMENYUQIDEYAOKUAI。

高通和苹果之间的结算可能是台积电的一大优势

极速排列3GAOTONGGONGSI(QCOM)HEPINGGUOGONGSI(NASIDAKEGUPIAODAIMA:AAPL)ZHIJIANDEHEJIEJIANGSHITAIJIDIANDEYIDAYOUSHI。TONGGUOHEJIE,AppleJIANGGOUMAIGAOTONGGONGSIDE5GDIAOZHIJIEDIAOQIXINPIAN,ERBUSHICONGYINGTEER(INTC)GOUMAI。DUIYUDUZHEDEXINXI,YINGTEERCONGQIZIJIDEJINGYUANCHANGSHENGCHANDABUFENXINPIAN,ERGAOTONGCHUANTONGSHANGYIKAOTAIJIDIANSHENGCHANQIXINPIAN。JINGUANPINGGUOGONGSIBUTAIKENENGZAI2019NIANFABUJUYOU5GGONGNENGDEXINiPhone,DANQI2020NIANDEXIAYIDAIiPhoneKENENGHUIBAOKUO5GGONGNENG。PINGGUOFENXISHIMing-Chi Kuo YUCEDAO2020NIANJIANGSHOUCHUYUE700-7500WANBUQIJIANiPhone,ZHEIXIEQIJIANSHOUJIJIANGPEIBEI5GDIAOZHIJIEDIAOQI。ZHEIYIWEIZHETAIJIDIANKENENGZAI2020NIANZENGJIAYUE350-412.5BAIWANMEIYUANDESHOURU(JIASHEGAOTONGGONGSIWEIMEIGE5GDIAOZHIJIEDIAOQIXINPIANZHIFUYUE5.5MEIYUAN)。

台积电继续领跑其竞争对手

ZAIJI​​SHUHESHOURUFANGMIANPAIMINGDIYIDEQIUYUANZAIBANDAOTIDAIGONGYEWUZHONGFEICHANGZHONGYAO。ZAIGUOQUDEJISHINIANZHONG,TAIJIDIANYICHENGWEIBANDAOTIZHIZAOLINGYUDELINGXIANZHUANYONGDAIGONGCHANG。ZHEISHITABITONGXINGGENGJUYOUSHI。TAMEINIANCHANSHENGDEJINGYINGXIANJINLIULIANGBUJINYUNXUTATONGGUOGUXIXIANGGUDONGFANHAIGUODUODEXIANJIN,ERQIEHAIYUNXUTAMEINIANCHIXUTOURUCHAOGUO100YIMEIYUANDEZIBENZHICHU。SHISHISHANG,TAIJIDIANJIHUAZAI2019NIANHUAFEI100YIZHI120YIMEIYUANYONGYUZIBENZHICHU。ZHEISHIDEZHIYOUSHAOSHUGONGSIKEYIYOUXIAODIYUTAIJIDIANJINGZHENG。QUNIANGlobal FoundryXUANBUFANGQI SUOYOU7NAMIDEKAIFADOUSHIBANDAOTIDAIGONGCHANGRUHEBAOCHIJISHUFAZHANDEYIGELIZI,CHUFEITAMENYONGYOUGUODUODEXIANJIN。

极速排列3ZILIAOLAIYUAN:2019NIANDIYIJIDUMD&A

极速排列3TAIJIDIANDELINGXIANJISHUXIANERYIJIAN,XIANZAIAMD(AMD)YIFANGQIQIXIANQIANDEDAIGONGHEZUOHUOBANGlobal Foundries,BINGLIYONGTAIJIDIANDE7NAMIJISHUYUYINGTEERZAICPUSHICHANGSHANGZHANKAIJINGZHENG。JINIANQIAN,TAIJIDIANHAIJIANGPINGGUOGONGSIDESUOYOUAXILIEXINPIANCONGSANXING(OTC:SSNLF)DAIGONGCHANGSHENGCHANZHUANYIDAOTAIJIDIAN。SUIZHE2019NIANSHANGBANNIAN5NAMIJISHUDETAOTAIYIJI3NAMIJINGYUANCHANGDEZHUNBEI,TAIJIDIANJIANGJIXULINGPAOQIJINGZHENGDUISHOU。

风险和挑战

依赖Apple等少数主要客户

极速排列3SUIRANTAIJIDIANBUHUITOULUYOUGUANQIKEHUDERENHEXINXI,DANAppleMUQIANSHITAIJIDIANZUIDADEKEHU。CONGPINGGUOGONGSIDESHOURUZHANYUEQISHOURUDEWUFENZHIYI,GENJUPENGBOHUIBIANDESHUJU。ZUIJINPINGGUOiPhoneXIAOSHOUDEPIRUANDAOZHIPINGGUOXUEJIANLEXINPIANDINGDAN。WOMENRENWEI,RUGUOAppleDEXIAYIDAIiPhoneWEINENGSHUOFUXIAOFEIZHESHENGJIXIANYOUSHOUJI,NEIMEWEILAIDEFENGXIANJIUHUICUNZAI。TOUZIZHEHAIYINGGAIJIZHU,PINGGUOGONGSIYOUDUOCAIGOUZHANLVEDELISHI。JINGUANTAIJIDIANMUQIANSHIPINGGUOAXILIEXINPIANDEWEIYIGONGYINGSHANG,DANPINGGUOKENENGHUIXUANZEJIANGQIAXILIEXINPIANCAIGOUJISANXINGDENGQITAGONGYINGSHANG。DUIYUTOUZIZHEDEXINXI,PINGGUOCENGYIDUYILAISANXINGHETAIJIDIANZUOWEITAMENDEXINPIANZHIZAOSHANG。

CHULEYILAIAppleZHIWAI,SUIZHEJISHUDEJINBU,NENGGOUSHIYONGTSMCXIANJINJISHUJIEDIANDEGONGSIYEYUELAIYUEDUO。ZHEIYIWEIZHETAIJIDIANJIANGYUELAIYUEDUODIYILAIQIXIANJINJISHUJIEDIANZHONGDEKEHU。

半导体行业具有高度周期性

SUIRANTAIJIDIANYINGGAISHOUYIYUWULIANWANG,5GHERENGONGZHINENGDENGWEILAIJIGEXINGYEQUSHI,DANZHENGGEBANDAOTIXINGYERENGRANSHIGAODUZHOUQIXINGDE。ZAIJINGJIDIMISHIQI,XUQIUKENENGHUIXUNSUJIANSHAO,GONGSIMIANLINCHANNENGGUOSHENGDEFENGXIAN。

新技术节点可能存在瓶颈

SUIZHEZHIZAOJISHUJINBUDAO5NAMIJIYIXIA,YANFAFEIYONGKENENGCHENGZHISHUJIZENGZHANG。YANFAFANGMIANDERENHESHIWUDOUJIANGSHITAIJIDIANDEJINGZHENGDUISHOURUSANXINGSUOXIAOCHAJU。

估值分析

ZI2019NIANCHUYILAI,TAIJIDIANDEGUJIAYISHANGZHANGYUE22%。YINCI,QIWEISUISHIYINGLVYISHENGZHI19.47BEI。ZHEIMINGXIANGAOYUJINNIANZAOXIESHIHOUYUE15BEIDEBILI。QIWEISUISHIYINGLVWEI19.47BEI,BIQI5NIANPINGJUNSHIYINGLV16.16BEIGAOCHUSANBEIDUO。SHICHANGSIHUYIJINGQUEDINGLESHANGWEISHIXIANDESHOURUFUSU。

图表YCharts的数据

2020年从年度股息转为季度股息

极速排列3QUNIAN,TAIJIDIANMEINIANZHIFU8XINTAIBIDEGUXI。YOUYUTAIJIDIANCONGZHIFUNIANDUGUXIZHUANWEIZHIFUJIDUGUXI,GONGSIYUJIJIANGZAI2019NIANDISANJIDUZAIZHIFUMEIGU8XINTAIBIDENIANDUGUXI,ZAIJIASHANG2019NIANDISIJIDUMEIGUXINGU2XINYUANDEJIDUGUXI。ZHEIYIWEIZHETADENIANDUZONGGUXIYUEWEIMEIGU10XINTAIBI。QI2019NIANDEGUXIXIANGDANGYUGUXISHOUYILVYUEWEI3.7%。YOUYUTAIJIDIANDEZHENGCESHIWEICHIPAIXILVYUEWEIZIYOUXIANJINLIULIANGDE70%,YINCIGAIGONGSIDEGUXISHIKECHIXUDE。

总结

WOMENRENWEITAIJIDIANJIANGZAI2019NIANXIABANNIANHUIFUSHANGXINGHEXIAXINGZENGZHANG。RANER,SHICHANGSIHUYIJINGQUEDINGLESHANGWEIFASHENGDEFUSU。WOMENRENWEIBAOSHOUDETOUZIZHEKENENGXIWANGDENGDAIHUIDIAO,YINWEIWOMENRENWEIXUYAOGENGGAODEANQUANBIANJI。