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特斯拉惊人的收入得益于一线希望

特斯拉惊人的收入得益于一线希望

ZUOZHE:Sean Chandler

摘要

  • 特斯拉发布了一个重磅炸弹的结果,其损失和收入远远低于预期。
  • 特斯拉重申了指引,但由于错过了自己的估计,分析师可能在未来几天和几周内有各种各样的估计。
  • 特斯拉现在拥有22亿美元现金,经历了巨额亏损,并支付了9.2亿美元的债务。
  • 现金确实“足以”让特斯拉继续前进,并且凭借有前景的产品路线图(以及卓越的电动汽车技术),投资者似乎愿意保持耐心。

ZAIRANGTOUZIZHEHEFENXISHIDENGDAIYIXIAOSHIYISHANGDEGUDONGXINZHIHOU,TESILA(NASIDAKEGUPIAODAIMA:TSLA)GONGBULEMEIGUKUISUN0.008YIMEIYUANHUO2.90MEIYUAN; BIFENXISHIYUQIDEMEIGU0.69MEIYUANCHASIBEIDUO。SHOURUYEDIYUYUQI,WEI45.4YIMEIYUAN,ERSHICHANGPUBIANYUQIWEI51.9YIMEIYUAN。JIEGUOSHIZAINANXINGDE,DANYOUYIXIANXIWANG:XIANJIN。JINGUANBENJIDUYIJINGYIXIANJINZHIFULE9.2YIMEIYUANDEZHAIWU,DANQIXIANJINYUE“JIN”XIADIELE15YIMEIYUAN,YINXINGYELIUXIALE22YIMEIYUAN。BENYUEZAOXIESHIHOU,TESILABIAOSHISHOUTOUYOUZUGOUDEXIANJIN,TESILAYIJINGWEIZIJIMAILEGENGDUODESHIJIAN。SUIZHESHANGHAIGONGCHANG,YXING,TESILABANDAOTI,TESILAPIKA,QUANZIDONGJIASHIYIJIBEISHOUZHENGYIDEJIQIRENCHUZUCHEGONGSIDELUXIANTU,SHIJIANFEICHANGZHONGYAO。GUDONGXIN。

期待最广泛的分析师估计

极速排列3ZHEIFENBAOGAOSHIYIGEZHONGBANGZHADAN。KEYISHUOSHITESILAZAOXIESHIHOUYINGGAIJINGGAODESHIQING,DANQIANGDIAOTAZAIBENYUEDEZUIHOUSHITIANTIGONGLECHAOGUO50%DEJIDUJIAOFU,WOXIANGZHEIWUJIYUSHI。

极速排列3ZAIQUNIANDE2018NIANDIERJIDUCAIBAOZHONG,TESILAXUANBUJIANGZAIWEILAIDEGEGEJIDUSHIXIANYINGLI。SHISHISHANG,TESILAZAIDISANJIDUHEDISIJIDUSHIXIANYINGLI,YUQIANJIJIBUTONG,ZHEIXIEDOUSHIZHENZHENGDELIRUN。1YUE2RI,TESILAXUANBULEYILUNCAIYUAN,BINGBIAOSHIDIYIJIDUZHIHUILVEWEIYINGLI,DANSHAOHOUDIAOZHENGHOUTAMENYUJIDIYIJIDUBUHUISHIXIANYINGLI。

极速排列3DIYIJIDUZUILINGRENSHIWANGDESHISXINGHEXXINGXIAOLIANGDAFUXIAHUA,TONGBIXIAJIANG56%,TONGBIXIAJIANG45%。ZAI1YUE30RIDEGENGXINXINZHONG,YEJIUSHIBENJIDUDEYIGEYUE,TESILAXIEDAO,TAYUJI“2019NIANDIYIJIDUDEModel SHEModel XJIAOFULIANGJIANGLVEDIYU2018NIANDIYIJIDU。” ZHEISHITESILASHANGGEJIDUWEITEDINGXIAOSHOUTIGONGDEWEIYIZHIDAO。

极速排列3DUIYUDIERJIDU,ZHENGRUBENYUEZAOXIESHIHOUSUOZUODENEIYANG,TESILAZHONGSHENQIDUI2019NIANDE360k-400kQICHEDEZHIDAO,BIAOMINGPINGJUNMEIJIDUJIAOFUYUE10WANLIANGQICHE。SHANGGEJIDU,TESILAJINJIAOFULE63,000LIANGQICHE,DANZAIDIERJIDU,TARENWEITAJIANGTIGONG9WANZHI10WANLIANGQICHE。RUGUOSHIZHEIYANG,NEIJIANGYOUWANGSHIXIANQIDADAO360k-400kQICHEDEMUBIAO。

极速排列3YOUYUTESILAJIANGRUHESHIXIANZHEIYIMUBIAOQUEFAMINGQUEXING,FENXISHIKENENGHUIWEITOUZIZHETIGONGGUANGFANDEDIERJIDUGUZHI。

Q1的许多价格变化

极速排列3WUSHIBENJIDUYIJINGFASHENGDEBIANHUA,TESILAZAIDIYIJIDUDUIQICHANPINZHENRONGHEDINGJIAZUOLEHENDUOGAIBIAN。ZHEIZHONGBIANHUATAIPINFANLE,JISHIXIANGWOZHEIYANGDEKUANGREZHUISUIZHEYENENGGENSHANG。ZHEIXIEBIANHUABAOKUOCHELIANGJIAGEBIANHUA,RUANJIANJIAGEBIANHUA(ZIDONGJIASHIYIHEQUANZIDONGJIASHI),YIJICHAICHUHETIANJIAJUYOUBUTONGDIANCHIZUCHANPINDEXINGHAO。ZAIDIANHUAHUIYIQIJIAN,FENXISHIXUNWENLEZHEIXIEBIANHUAYIJISHIFOUHUIJIXU,DANAILONGMASIKEBIAOSHITAMENBUHUIDUIWEILAIDEJIAGEBIANHUAFABIAOPINGLUN。

FENXISHI,TOUZIZHEHEKEHUXIANRANDUIZHEIXIEBIANHUAGANDAOJUSANG。YIXIASHIQ1ZHONGFASHENGDEYIXIE(DANBUSHIQUANBU)BIANHUA。QINGZHUYI,RIQIKENENGHUIPIANCHAJITIAN。

  • 01/01:所有特斯拉都收到了2000美元的降价,以抵消联邦税收抵免减少3,750美元
  • 01/09:特斯拉停产Model S和X 75D电池组(来源)
  • 01/29:特斯拉推出标准系列型号S和X.与之前的75D相比:型号S:比之前的75D增加了11英里,价格增加了9,000美元。X型:比之前的75D增加32英里,价格增加6,000美元(来源)
  • 2/28:所有型号:由于宣布关闭商店而减少约6%
  • 2月28日:特斯拉推出35,000美元的Model 3和Standard Range Plus(来源)
  • 3/02:特斯拉削减自动驾驶仪和FSD软件价格(来源)
  • 3/16:特斯拉移除中档模型3(来源)
  • 3/18:所有型号:商店关闭计划取消后增加约3%(来源)这被推迟至3/20
  • 3/22:特斯拉移除标准范围模型S(来源)

模型S和X单位和毛利率将是一个谜

ZUOWAN,TESILADUIModel SHEXJINXINGLEGENGGAI,QIZHONGBAOKUOGENGXINDEDONGLICHUANDONGXITONG,QIGONGLVFANWEIKUODALE10%YISHANG,ERQIEDIANCHIMEIYOUBIANHUA。TESILAHAIDAIHUIQIJIANDEBIAOZHUNFANWEIBIANZHONG。QITAGAIJINBAOKUOXINDEQUANZISHIYINGXUANJIA,GENGKUAIDECHONGDIANSUDU,SHENGJIDECHELUNZHOUCHENGHEXINDELUNTAISHEJI。

极速排列3ZAICIZHIQIAN,Model SHEXZI2017NIAN1YUE(Wiki)YILAIMEIYOUSHOUDAORENHEBIANHUA,SUIRANZHEIDUICHUANTONGQICHEZHIZAOSHANGLAISHUOKENENGSHIZHENGCHANGDE,DANTESILAXUYAOLIANGNIANDESHIJIAN。XIANZAIModel SHEXDESHECHENGFENBIEGAODA370YINGLIHE325YINGLI,ZHEISHIYIGETISHENGXUQIUDEHAOFANGFA。TESILAHAIZHONGXINTUICHULEBIAOZHUNFANWEIMOXINGS,XIANZAIYOU285YINGLIDEFANWEI。

极速排列31YUECHU,TESILAZAITUICHUBIAOZHUNXILIEQIANJIZHOUQUXIAOLE75D。SHANGGEYUE,TESILAYEZAIQIWANGZHANSHANGFANGQILEBIAOZHUNFANWEI,ZHISHIZAIZUOWANTUICHUZUIXINDESHUAXINHOUJIANGQIDAIHUILAI。TESILABIAOSHI,JIANGDISHENGCHANXIANZHONGZUBUFENDEJIAGEXIAJIANGHETINGCHANSHIZAOCHENGS / XXINGMAOLILVJIANGDIDEYUANYIN。

极速排列3ZAIDIANHUAHUIYIQIJIAN,TESILAQUEXINMOXINGSDEXIAOSHOUBINGMEIYOUBEIMOXING3DEXIAOSHOUSUOCANSHI。SHISHISHANG,ZHEIXIEQICHEDEJIAGEDIANBUTONG,DANJIANYUZAIYINRUMOXING3ZHIHOU,NUOWEIDENGGUODESXINGXIAOLIANGDAFUXIAJIANG。 ,WOBUGANGOUTONG。XIANGBIZHIXIA,MOXING3RENGRANSHIYIGEHENHAODEJIAZHI。YEXU,ZENGJIADEFANWEIHEXUANJIAKEYITIGONGZUGOUDEXINGQUGENGDUODEQIANJING,DANWORENGRANRENWEINEIBUHEWAIBUSHEJISHUAXINJIANGGENGYOUBANGZHU。JISHITESILASHEFACIJIDUISXINGHEXXINGDEXUQIU,MUQIANDEJIAGERENGRANDIYUDISIJIDUDANGNIKAOLVDAOAutopilotXIANZAISHIYIGEMIANFEIDEXUANZE。SHANGGEJIDU,DAIYOULudicrousMOSHIDEModel S PerformanceSHOUJIA135,000MEIYUAN,ERXIANZAI,XIANYOUModel SHEXCHEZHUDESHOUJIAWEI120,000MEIYUAN - HUO100,000MEIYUAN。

到目前为止,特斯拉的电池+动力系统组合在行业中处于领先地位

TESILADUIModel SHEXDEZUIXINSHENGJITUXIANLEQIZAIHAOHUADIANDONGCHELINGYUDELINGXIANYOUSHI。RENHESHECHIPINZHIZAOSHANGDOUMEIYOUJIJIANGTUICHUDEEVSHENZHIJIEJIN370YINGLIDEFANWEI。JISHINIHUIDAO2012NIAN,NIHUIFAXIAN60kWh Model SDEFANWEIBIJINTIANDEAODIe-tronGENGDUO。ZAIDIANCHIRONGLIANGFANGMIAN,TESILAJIHUKEYIWEIAODIZHIZAODEMEIGEe-tronZHIZAOLIANGZHONGModel 3 Standard Range PlusCHEXING。RUGUOe-tron YOUYUDIANCHIXIANZHIERZHENGZAIJINGLISHENGCHANWENTI,ZHEISHIDEYUTESILAJINGZHENGBIANDEKUNNAN。

据估计,特斯拉的Standard Range Plus 电池容量约为55kWh,可提供240英里的续航里程。如果不考虑减轻体重的范围,如果将240英里的比例缩小到85%,这将使其与奥迪e-tron的范围相同。在这种规模下,电池组的容量只有95kWh e-tron的一半,仅为47kWh。这是相同的范围,电池容量的一半。鉴于电池是EV中最重的部件,说特斯拉的效率是其两倍是不公平的。然而,它几乎就像一个雪球效应。电池和动力传动系统的效率越高,由于其重量减轻,车辆的效率就越高。

极速排列3DANGRAN,Model 3SHIJIAOCHE,e-tronSHISUV。RANER,JISHINIJIANGe-tronYUGENGDADEModel XJINXINGBIJIAO,ZHEIXIESHUZIRENGRANZAITESILADEQINGLAIZHONG。TESILADE100kWh Model XXIANZAIYONGYOU60%DEXUHANGNENGLI,DIANCHIZUJINZENGJIALE5%。

DANGRAN,MUQIANSHICHANGSHANGZUIGAOXIAODEDIANDONGQICHERENGRANSHI28kWh Hyundai Ioniq Electric,YINWEITADEXIAODIANCHIKEYIJIANQINGZHONGLIANG。JINGUANZHONGLIANGCHAOGUO460BANG,DANModel 3DEXIAOLVJINBIIoniqDI1.5%。RANER,YOUYUQIGENGJIAPINGWENDEKONGQIDONGLIXUE,Model 3DEGONGLUDENGJIWEI140mpg,BIIoniqDE122mpgGAOCHU15%。Model 3DESHUJUJIYUElectrekWANGZHANSHANGDEMonroneyTIEZHITUPIAN。

康奈尔大学证实立体摄像机可以工作

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下图显示了相机所看到的内容与LiDAR所看到的内容之间的差异。计算机将这些图像转换为数字,简单的图像使处理更容易。然而,摄像机可以提供许多细节,例如障碍物,甚至确定人类面向他们的方向以预测他们的路径。特斯拉通过为系统提供更多图像和边缘情况来继续增强其神经网络,以教会系统在更多场景中做出响应。资料来源:特斯拉自治活动

结论

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马斯克会放弃吗?

极速排列3WODUICIBIAOSHIHUAIYI,DANWOHAISHIXIANGBAZHEIXIEXIANGFAPAOZAINAOHOU。WOKAISHIHUAIYIMASIKESHIFOUHUIFANGQIBINGJIANDANDIZHUANZHUYUSpaceX。ZUOTIANWOZAIDIANHUAHUIYISHANGTINGTAJIANGHUASHI,WOWENZIJI“TAZHENDEZAIHUMA?”。GUDONGDEXINSHIZAIZHONGSHENGXIANGQI75FENZHONGHOUFACHUDE,TAZAIKAICHANGBAISHIWUFAXINGCHENGHUAYU,ZHEISHIWOCONGTASHENSHANGKANDAODEZUIZAOGAODEYIFENGXIN。TAXUYAOZUODEJIUSHIDUYIGEJUBEN。WOZHIDAOTAXIWANGTESILASHISIRENDE,BUXIHUANHEFENXISHIDAJIAODAO,YEXUMASIKEHENGUANXIN。DANSHI,WOZUOTIANMEIYOUKANDAOTABIAODA。ZHEIYOUDIANXIANGSHITUQUEDINGYIMINGYUANGONGSHIFOUCHUXIANCHIDAOERQIEMEIYOUWEIYANJIANGZUOZHUNBEISHIFOUGUANXINTADEGONGZUO。