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为什么雪佛龙会赢得阿纳达科的竞标战而且值得?

为什么雪佛龙会赢得阿纳达科的竞标战而且值得?

极速排列3ZUOZHE:Sure Dividend

摘要

  • 阿纳达科石油公司非常适合雪佛龙。这两家公司拥有互补的资产,因此可以实现巨大的协同效应。
  • 收购阿纳达科将使雪佛龙的生产率仅比巨型综合同行埃克森美孚低5%。
  • 雪佛龙可能在大约五年内抵消交易的稀释效应。但是最近,出现了一个新的潜在追求者。
  • 如果阿纳达科的收购成功,我们对雪佛龙投资者的前景保持乐观。

大约两周前,雪佛龙公司(CVX)宣布有意以现金和股票交易收购阿纳达科石油公司(APC)。前者的股价因新闻而暴跌5%,尚未收回损失。但是,如果认为这笔交易对雪佛龙不利,那将是一个很大的错误。

雪佛龙是埃克森美孚(XOM)旗下属于能源领域的两个红利贵族之一。您可以在此处查看所有57名红利贵族的完整列表。

极速排列32014 - 2016NIANDESHIYOUSHUAITUIYASUOLEXUEFOLONGZAIGUOQUJINIANDEGUXIZENGZHANG,DANXIANGANADAKEZHEIYANGDESHOUGOUKENENGYOUZHUYUGONGSIZHONGHUIZHENGGUI。JIANGANADAKEDAIDAOCHUANSHANGJIANGDADATISHENGXUEFOLONGDECHANLIANGZENGZHANG。

ZAIBENWENZHONG,WOMENJIANGFENXIWEISHENMEZHEIBIJIAOYIDUIXUEFOLONGYOULI,BINGGUJIRUGUOSHOUGOUCHENGGONG,SHIYOUZHUANYEKEYICONGMUQIANDEGUJIAFANDANDAODUOYUAN。

商业概览

XUEFOLONGSHIQUANQIUDISANDASHIYOUJUTOU,SHIZHIDADAO2320YIMEIYUAN。TAYUQITAZHEMINGDESHIYOUJUTOU(RUAIKESENMEIFUHEBP plc(BP))YOUZHEJINGRENDECHAYI。XUEFOLONGDESHIYOUJIAGEBIDAXINGZONGHETONGXINGGENGJUGANGGANZUOYONG。KEYIKENDING,ZAI2018NIAN,XUEFOLONGCHANSHENGQISHOUYICONGQISHANGYOUDUANDE78%HEZHIYOU22%LAIZIQIXIAYOUDUAN。YINCI,SHANGYOUBUMENDUIGONGSIZHENGTIYEJIDEYINGXIANGYAODAYUTONGYE。

CIWAI,SUIRANBP,DAODAER(TOT)HEHELANHUANGJIAQIAOPAI(RDS.B)YIDAZHIXIANGDENGDEBILISHENGCHANSHIYOUHETIANRANQI,DANXUEFOLONGYI61/39DEBILISHENGCHANSHIYOUHETIANRANQI。CIWAI,GAIGONGSIGENJUSHIYOUJIAGEDINGJIAQITIANRANQILIANGDEHENDAYIBUFEN。YINCI,XUEFOLONGZONGCHANLIANGDEYUE75%SHIXIANGDUIYUSHIYOUJIAGEDINGJIADE。YINCIHENMINGXIAN,GAIGONGSIDUIYOUJIADEGANGGANZUOYONGYAODAYUTONGXING。

极速排列3JINGUANXUEFOLONGZAIGUOQUSHINIANZHONGHUAFEILEGUODUODEZIBENZHICHU,DANZHIDAO2017NIANCAIKAISHIJIANGQICHANLIANGZENGJIALEZHENGZHENGSHINIAN。RANER,ZHEIZHONGLINGRENSHIWANGDEYEJIBUFENYUANYUSHIYOUXINGYEZENGZHANGXIANGMUDEXINGZHI,YINWEIZHEIXIELEIXINGDEXIANGMUYOUSHIXUYAOJINIANSHIJIANCAINENGCHANSHENGXIANJINLIU。ZHIDEZHUYIDESHI,XUEFOLONGZAI2012 - 2014NIANQIJIANMEINIANHUAFEICHAOGUO300YIMEIYUANYONGYUZIBENZHICHU,DANGSHISHIYOUJIAOYIJIAGEZAIMEITONG100MEIYUANZUOYOU。

SUIRANDALIANGTOUZIZHICHUDAOZHITOUZIZHICHUDAFUXIAHUA,DANJINNIANLAIXUEFOLONGYIJINGHUIFULEWENJIANDEZENGZHANGGUIJI。GAISHIYOUGONGSIDECHANLIANGZAI2017NIANZENGZHANGLE5%,QUNIANYOUZENGZHANGLE7%。CIWAI,YUJIJINNIANDECHANLIANGJIANGZENGZHANG4-7%,DAO2024NIANJIANGZENGZHANG3-4%。

极速排列3ERDIEJIPENDIDEQIANGJINGSHITOUJIANGTUIDONGWEILAIZENGZHANGDEHENDAYIBUFEN,GAIGONGSIZAIGUOQULIANGNIANZHONGZENGJIALEJIN70YITONGZIYUAN,CONGERSHIGAIDIQUDEZICHANJIAZHIFANLEYIFAN。GUANLICENGYUJI,ERDIEJIPENDIDECHANLIANGDAOMINGNIANNIANDIJIANGZENGJIADAOMEITIAN60WANTONG,DAO2023NIANDIJIANGZENGJIADAOMEITIAN90WANTONG。

极速排列3ZHIDEZHUYIDESHI,XUEFOLONGZAINENGYUANXINGYEDEJILIESHUAITUIQIJIANSHISHILELINGRENYINXIANGSHENKEDEGAOJIPINGJI,CONG2014NIANZHONGQIDAO2017NIAN。GAIGONGSIDALIANGTOUZIYUGAOLIRUNLVDESHIYOULIANSUOCHUBEI,SUIRANTABOLILELIRUNLVJIAODIDETONG。YOUYUZHEIZHONGGAODENGJI,GAISHIYOUJUTOUYIJINGDAFUJIANGDILESHENGCHANCHENGBEN,CONG2014NIANDEMEITONG18MEIYUANJIANGZHIZUIJINYIGEJIDUDEMEITONG10MEIYUAN。

分析阿纳达科接管

1.交易价格

GENJUJIAOYITIAOKUAN,ANADAKEDEGUDONGJIANGHUODE16.25MEIYUANDEXIANJINHE0.3869GUXUEFOLONGGUFEN,YONGYUTAMENYONGYOUDEMEIGUAnadarko。JIANYUChevronZAIJIAOYIGONGGAOQIANYITIANDEGUPIAOJIAGE,JIAOYIJIAZHIYUEWEIAnadarkoMEIGU65MEIYUAN。GAIJIAGEXIANGDANGYUANADAKEGONGGAOQIANGUJIAYIJIA39%。

极速排列3SHICHANGRENWEIYIJIAGUOGAO,DAOZHIXUEFOLONGGUJIAZAIXINWENZHONGBAODIE5%。DANSHI,WOMENRENWEIZHEIBIJIAOYIDEJIAGEDUIXUEFOLONGLAISHUOHENYOUXIYINLI。WEILETIGONGYIGEGUANDIAN,ANADAKEJINZAILIUGEYUEQIANYIJIAOYIJIAGEJINXINGJIAOYI,ERJIAOYIJIAGEBIGUPIAODE52ZHOUGAODIANDI14%。CIWAI,XIFANGSHIYOUGONGSI(OXY)JUBAODAOMEIGUSHOUGOU76MEIYUANSHOUGOUANADAKE。YINCIHENMINGXIANXUEFOLONGBINGMEIYOUWEICICISHOUGOUTIGONGGUOGAODEYIJIA,ZHISHAOZAISHICHANGHEXIFANGGUOJIADUIQISHOUGOUMUBIAODEGUZHIFANGMIANSHIRUCI。

更好的是,交易的时机似乎很完美。在圣诞节抛售中,石油价格从底部上涨了50%,但阿纳达科的股价明显低于去年夏天以来雪佛龙的油价和股价。阿纳达科收购

(LAIYUAN:TOUZIZHEBAOGAO)

极速排列3QUNIANXIATIANLIANGGUJIAGEDEBILVDADAO52ZHOUGAODIAN0.60,BINGQIEZAIXUANBUSHOUGOUZHIQIANBAODIEZHI52ZHOUDIDIAN0.35。YINCI,XIANERYIJIANDESHI,XUEFOLONGNAIXINDENGDAIYIGEHESHIDEJIAGE,BINGXUANZEZAIWANMEIDESHIJIAN,JIANADAKEDEXIANGDUIJIAGESHIZUIBIANYIDE。

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2.收购阿纳达科的好处

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极速排列3YOUYUSHOUGOULEANADAKE,XUEFOLONGJIANGYIDIYUMEITONG3MEIYUANDEJIAGEGOUMAICHAOGUO100YIDEGAOLIRUNTONG。YINCI,TAJIANGJIASUQIZICHANZUHEDEGAOJIBIELIUCHENG,BINGJINYIBUJIANGDIQIPINGJUNSHENGCHANCHENGBEN。

阿纳达科资产

(LAIYUAN:TOUZIZHEBAOGAO)

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极速排列3CIWAI,YOUYUQIZAIMOXIGEWANDECUNZAI,ANADAKEFEICHANGSHIHEXUEFOLONG。LIANGJIAGONGSIDOUSHIGAILINGYUDELINGDAOZHE,JUYOUGAODUHUBUDEDIWEI。SHISHISHANG,TAMENMUQIANZAIGAIDIQUYONGYOU3GEHE4GEZHIWEI。SHOUGOUANADAKEJIANGSHIXUEFOLONGDEPINGTAISHULIANGJIHUZENGJIASANBEI,CONG6GEZENGJIADAO16GE。YOUYUYUNYINGGUIMODEKUODA,XUEFOLONGKENENGHUIZAIZHEIYILINGYUSHIXIANJUDADEXIETONGXIAOYING。

CIWAI,ANADAKEZAIMOSANGBIKEYONGYOUCHONGMANXIWANGDEZICHAN,MOSANGBIKEYONGYOUSHIJIESHANGZUIDADETIANRANQIZIYUANZHIYI。XUEFOLONGGONGSIDEGUANLICENGYUJIMOSANGBIKEDEYEHUATIANRANQIXIANGMUJIANGWEIGONGSITIGONGKEKAOQIEZHANGSHOUDEXIANJINLIU。

极速排列3ZHIDEZHUYIDESHI,XUEFOLONGHEANADAKEDEHUBUZICHANJIANGCHANSHENGJUDADEXIETONGXIAOYING。GENGZHUNQUEDISHUO,YOUYUXIAOCHULEZHONGDIE,TIGAOLEXIAOLVHETOUZIZUHEDEGAOJIBIE,XUEFOLONGYUJIJIANGSHIXIAN10YIMEIYUANDECHENGBENXUEJIANHE10YIMEIYUANDEZIBENZHICHUXUEJIAN。GUANLICENGYUJIZAIHEBINGWANCHENGHOUYINIANNEISHIXIAN20YIMEIYUANDENIANDUXIETONGXIAOYING,YUJIJIANGZAIJINNIANXIABANNIANSHIXIAN。HUANJUHUASHUO,SHOUGOUJIANGHENKUAIDEDAOHUIBAO。

极速排列3CIWAI,XUEFOLONGJIANGZAICICISHOUGOUHOUDAFUJIASUQIZICHANCHUSHOU。SUIRANSHIYOUJUTOUZHUNBEIZAI2018 - 2019NIANQIJIANCHUSHOULVEGAOYU50YIMEIYUANDEZICHAN,DANYUJIZAI2020 - 2020NIANQIJIANJIANGBOLI150YIZHI200YIMEIYUANDEZICHAN。BOLIFEIHEXINZICHANJIANGYOUZHUYUGONGSIJIANSHAOZHAIWUSHUEBINGZENGJIAGUDONGDEXIANJINHUIBAO。YOUYUSHOUGOUAnadarkoDEJIAZHIWEI330YIMEIYUAN,HENMINGXIANSHANGSHUZICHANCHUSHOUJIANGZAIHENDACHENGDUSHANGDIXIAOSHOUGOUSUOHUAFEIDEJINE。

雪佛龙拉力赛收购有多远?

极速排列3HEBINGDEZUIZHONGYAOFANGMIANZHIYI,JIDADUOSHUTOUZIZHEDEGUANZHU,SHIXUEFOLONGSHENGCHANNENGLIDEJIJUZENGJIA。GENGZHUNQUEDISHUO,JIANYULIANGJIAGONGSI2018NIANDEBAOGAOSHUJU,SHOUGOUANADAKEJIANGSHIXUEFOLONGDECHANLIANGZENGJIA20%,CONGMEITIAN300ZHI360WANTONGSHIYOUDANGLIANG。QIJIEGUOSHI,XUEFOLONGGONGSIDESHENGCHANLIANGHUIBIMUQIANDECHANLIANGAIKESENDE,ZHEIXIAZHIYOU5%BIAOSHIXIANZAIMEITIAN383WANWANTONG。

极速排列3MUQIAN,AIKESENMEIFUDESHIZHIBIXUEFOLONGGAOCHU52%。RANER,RUGUOHOUZHEDADAOTONGXINGDECHANLIANG,QISHIZHIKENENGHUIMIBUDABUFENCHAJU,YINWEISHANGYOUBUMENCHANSHENGLELIANGJIAGONGSIDEDABUFENSHOUYI。DANGRAN,AIKESENMEIFUBIXUEFOLONGGENGJIAZHENGHE,YINCI,QISHANGYOUYEWUMUQIANJINZHANQIZONGSHOUYIDE60%,ERGONGSIDESHANGYOUYEWUZEZHANQIZONGSHOUYIDE78%。YINCI,JISHIZHEILIANGJIASHIYOUJUTOUZUIZHONGYONGYOUXIANGTONGDECHANLIANG,AIKESENRENGYOUKENENGJIXUBAOCHISHIZHILINGXIANDIWEI。

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极速排列3JIANYUSHANGSHUSUOYOUYINSU,KEYIHELIDIYUJIXUEFOLONGDESHIZHIJIANGCONGMUQIANDE2320YIMEIYUANZENGJIAJIN40%ZHIYUE3200YIMEIYUAN,ZHEIYUAIKESENMUQIANDESHIZHISHANGZHANG10%,ANQUANDEYIMIAN。YOUYUXUEFOLONGJIANGZAIWUNIANNEIDIXIAOXINGUFAXING,QIGUJIAZAIWEILAIWUNIANNEIKENENGHUIFANDANYUE40%。YOUYUGAIGUPIAOHAITIGONG3.9%DEKANGKAIHONGLI,YINCIWEILAIWUNIANNEIKENENGHUIWEIGUDONGTIGONGLIANGWEISHUDENIANJUNHUIBAO。

股利

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潜在的竞购战?

JUBAODAO,ZAIXUEFOLONGXUANBUYOUYISHOUGOUANADAKEZHIQIAN,JUBAODAO,XIFANGGUOJIAGONGSIDUIXUENALONGDESHOUGOUJIAGEGAOYUXUEFOLONG - MEIGU70MEIYUANYISHANG。JINTIAN,Occidental XUANBUQUESHIYIXIANJINHEGUPIAOJIAOYIDEJIAGEXIANGANADAKETIGONGMEIGU76MEIYUAN。GAIGONGSITIGONGYIBANDEXIANJINHELINGYIBANDEGUFEN。

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极速排列3XUEFOLONGGUPIAOZAIXUANBUJINGGOUOccidentalSHIDAFUXIACUO,BIAOMINGSHICHANGWEIXUEFOLONGTIGONGGENGXINBAOJIADEJIHUIHENDA。JINGUANRUCI,MUQIANHAIBUQINGCHULIANGWEIZHUIQIUZHEZHONGDENAYIWEIJIANGZHANSHANGFENG。RUGUOXUEFOLONGYIGENGGAODECHUJIAHUIBAO,NEIJIHUKENDINGHUIZHANSHANGFENG。ZAIZHEIZHONGQINGKUANGXIA,SHANGSHUDUIXUEFOLONGGUDONGSHOUGOUDELIYIDEGUJIRENGRANYOUXIAO,JINGUANSHIYOUZHUANYEXUYAOLIUDAOQINIAN(ERBUSHIWUNIAN)LAIDIXIAOYOUCICHANSHENGDEXISHI。

最后的想法

SUIRANXUDUOFENXISHIHETOUZIZHEYIJINGTICHUTAMENDUIXUEFOLONGKENENGSHOUGOUANADAKEDEKANFA,DANHENSHAOYOURENTIDAOXUEFOLONGJIANGDADAOAIKESENMEIFUDESHENGCHANLVZHEIYISHISHI,RUGUOGAIJIAOYICHENGWEIXIANSHI。JIANYUSHANGSHUSUOYOUYINSU,XUEFOLONGGUDONGJIANGYINCICISHOUGOUDEWANMEISHIJIERHUODEGAOEHUIBAO,YINWEIANADAKEFEICHANGSHIHEXUEFOLONGWEILAIDEFAZHANZHANLVE。